We have launched a series which provides the insights of leading strategic thinkers on global change in our time.

The past 15 years have seen dramatic changes which are driving further change in the global system.

The series provides insights with regard to strategic change in the global system over the past 15 years from the standpoint of U.S. Administrations as well as the work of a number of well-known strategic analysts.

We have seen the rise of the multi-polar authoritarian world.

The challenge facing the liberal democracies is fundamental: how to preserve the “rules-based order” in this context and defend Western values.

The second book in our series was first published in July 2023.

French Defense Policy under President Macron examines both domestic and international challenges faced during his first term (2017-2022).

It discusses France’s efforts to reassert its global influence while navigating the complexities of the European Union, including the rise of authoritarian powers and the changing relationship with the United States.

Also analyzed are French military modernization programs, focusing on key areas like the development of a future combat air system, nuclear submarines, and space capabilities.

The book highlights the following key themes:

Focus on Strategic Autonomy and Power Projection: Emphasis on “Change of Scale”: France is actively modernizing its armed forces to project power on a global scale, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, driven by concerns about China’s growing assertiveness. This involves developing a “system of systems” approach, integrating next-generation fighters, drones, missiles, space assets, and both ground and sea-based platforms.

“Key to FCAS will be future threats, delivering increased capability for area denial and anti-access… Connecting the next generation fighter, first-line combat and/or swarming unmanned air vehicles (UAVs), missiles, various combinations of tankers and transport aircrafts, as well as ground and sea-based assets requires space-based reliance and autonomy as well as other non-space-based capabilities.” – Robbin Laird

Nuclear Deterrent Remains Central: The nuclear-powered carrier and ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) programs are being modernized, reaffirming the significance of nuclear deterrence for France’s strategic autonomy.

“France would not be France without its deterrence… We reaffirm our determination of independence and sovereignty.” – Florence Parly, French Armed Forces Minister

New SSBN and Sonar System: The development of a new generation SSBN, Téméraire, and a cutting-edge sonar system are aimed at bolstering underwater nuclear deterrence and enhancing anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

“It will be a ‘significant break’ from systems in service. The size of the arrays and frequency bands will deliver a higher level of precision in undersea MD detection in terms of azimuth, elevation and range.”

Long-Range Power Projection Capabilities: The acquisition of A330 MRTT and A400M aircraft enables long-range deployments and strategic airlift for both conventional and nuclear missions, as exemplified by the “Mcnasce” and “Skyros” missions in the Indo-Pacific.

“The acquisition of the A330 Multirole Tanker Transport (MRTT) Phoenix as well as of the A400M has, for instance, been a game-changer for the French Air and Space Force, which can now conduct long-range and in-depth raids.”

Indo-Pacific as a Strategic Priority:

• “Indo-Pacific” Strategy: France, the first European nation to adopt a dedicated Indo-Pacific strategy, seeks to counterbalance China’s influence in the region, promote regional stability, and protect its significant territorial interests and citizens residing in the area.

“France is indeed a riparian and sovereign Indo-Pacific nation with clear vested interests starting from the protection of some 1.7 million French citizens leaving in its seven overseas regions, departments and communities”

• Partnerships with Key Players: France is actively cultivating strategic partnerships with India and Australia, conducting bilateral exercises and fostering multilateral cooperation to address regional challenges. This is part of a broader “coalition of the willing” approach, seeking to build consensus and counter China’s assertiveness.

“France advocates less a policy of containment than a policy of coercion which does not preclude commercial ties.

Complexities of European Defense Cooperation:

• Ambitions for European Defense: President Macron champions a stronger European defense framework, exemplified by initiatives like the European Intervention Initiative and the proposed European Defence and Security Council. This vision emphasizes increased defense spending, joint development of critical capabilities (e.g., FCAS, MGCS tank, and Eurodrone), and enhanced operational cooperation within the EU framework.
• Challenges and Diverging Interests: Despite progress in areas like the European Air Transport Command and Franco-German cooperation, national interests often outweigh collective aspirations.

“Europeans have dusted off the concept of a European rapid reaction force in response to a lack of US cooperation from allies in the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul.”

• Strained Anglo-French Defense Ties: The AUKUS submarine deal severely damaged Franco-Australian relations and raised questions about the future of Anglo-French defense cooperation post-Brexit. While some areas of collaboration, like MBDA missile development, remain strong, the cancellation of joint projects like the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the lack of new initiatives highlight the challenges.

“With a break clearly with Brexit, The enthusiasm with Lancaster House has largely evaporated.”

• Need for Operational Interoperability: Despite the challenges, operational interoperability between allied forces remains strong, as seen in joint exercises and operations like Operation Hamilton in Syria. The ability to operate seamlessly in a coalition environment remains a critical asset for France and its allies.

“If coalition logistics is crucial to shaping a way ahead for France to meet its national interests, what is clear is that ensuring that military and coalition logic is crucial to shaping a way ahead for France to meet its national interests.”

Tensions with Turkey:

• NATO Naval Mission Withdrawal: France withdrew from a NATO naval mission in the Mediterranean in protest against alleged Turkish aggression towards a French warship, highlighting the strained relationship between the two NATO members.

“The president of the French republic has decided to withdraw French capabilities from Sea Guardian until further notice.” – Florence Parly

Conclusion:

French defense policy under President Macron is characterized by a focus on strategic autonomy, power projection in the Indo-Pacific, and ambitions for a stronger European defense. However, achieving these goals faces significant challenges, including diverging national interests within the EU, strained Anglo-French ties, and the need to manage complex geopolitical dynamics.

Published July 4, 2023