We have launched a series which provides the insights of leading strategic thinkers on global change in our time.

The past 15 years have seen dramatic changes which are driving further change in the global system.

The series provides insights with regard to strategic change in the global system over the past 15 years from the standpoint of U.S. Administrations as well as the work of a number of well-known strategic analysts.

We have seen the rise of the multi-polar authoritarian world.

The challenge facing the liberal democracies is fundamental: how to preserve the “rules-based order” in this context and defend Western values.

The third book in our series was first published in July 2023.

The third volume in our series looks at the Obama Administration and how they addressed global change. We take the reader year by year from 2009 through 2016 and examine the global shifts and how the Obama Administration saw these shifts and dealt with them.

The rise of China and the resurgence of Russia have put in play 21st century authoritarian powers directly challenging the United States and the liberal democratic allies whose challenges need to be met. Put bluntly, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Warsaw Pact was seen to open up a new period of domination by the liberal democracies.

New states would be added to the EU and to NATO, and the globalization of the economy was seen as inextricably intertwined with the ascendancy of liberal democracy. What was lost in this euphoric way forward was the rise of the 21st century authoritarian capitalist powers, Russia and China, and their ability to challenge the ascendancy of the liberal democratic European and American regimes, both at home and abroad.

The essays were originally published on the website Second Line of Defense and were written by a number of analysts working with the website. Contributors or interviewees include Prof. Amatzia Baram, Richard Bitzinger, Stephen Blank, Paul Bracken, Murielle Delaporte, Lt. General (Retired) James Dubik, Alain Dupas, Chiragov Fuad, Rear Admiral Marshall E. Gilbert, Vitaliy N, Katsenelson, Danny Lam, Mark Lewis, Kenneth Maxwell, Harald Malmgren, Richard McCormick, Kenneth Miller, Caroline Mükusch, Ed Timperlake, Scott Truver, Brittney Warrick, Richard Weitz, John Wheeler and Michael W. Wynne.

As Professor Kenneth Maxwell notes in the forward to the book: “The 2009 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the United States President Barack Obama for his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.” That was the hope. Many others in addition to the Nobel peace prize committee shared this hope.

“But what was Obama’s execution of these stated ideals in real time. Did he fulfill these high expectations?

“The Nobel peace prize committee in 2009 perhaps confused words with future performance. For Obama is if nothing else a great wordsmith. It is the exploration of these contradictions over Obama’s two terms which makes this book such indispensable reading.”

Key Themes:

Decline of U.S. Hegemony and the Rise of Multipolarity: We highlight the waning influence of the United States as a global hegemon and the emergence of a multipolar world order. This shift is attributed to various factors, including the US’s costly interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, the rise of China as an economic and military power, and the resurgence of Russia under Vladimir Putin.

1. “The invasion of Iraq and the endless war in Afghanistan fit no longer within a realist understanding of the world. Instead, the United States engaging in an open-ended liberal hegemonist effort has undercut US strategic interests.“
2. “These two days determined what Germany would do next – build out its army and start World War III. Comparing Putin with Hitler, as one of my Russian friends put it, is “absolutely abominable” because it diminishes Hitler’s atrocities and overstates by a mile what Putin has accomplished to date. Yet it feels as if we are at a Putin-of-1938 moment. Will he turn into a Putin of 1939 and invade other countries? I don’t know.“

Regional Security Challenges and the Proliferation of Threats: The sources emphasize the proliferation of security challenges across various regions, including:

• Middle East: The rise of ISIS, instability in Iraq and Syria, and the Iran nuclear deal pose significant threats to regional and global security.
• Asia: China’s assertive territorial claims in the South and East China Seas, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, and tensions between Japan and China contribute to regional instability.
• Europe: Russia’s annexation of Crimea, its intervention in Ukraine, and its military buildup in the Arctic challenge the existing European security architecture.
• Arctic: The melting of Arctic ice opens new strategic opportunities and potential for conflict, with Russia taking the lead in asserting its presence and claims in the region.

1. “China’s PLA apparent itchiness to have armed conflict with one or more of its neighbors may soon be scratched. Limited, but violent engagement with Philippines, Vietnam, or even Japan is increasingly likely.“
2. “Although not much covered in public news and media, Russians have also experimented with electronic probes of US Naval vessels. At least one serious electronic disablement probe was applied to a US Navy ship in the Black Sea recently.“

Technological Advancements and the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA): The book discusses the impact of technological advancements on warfare, particularly the rise of cyberwarfare, precision-guided munitions, and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities in this period.

“Singaporeans see technology as their force multiplier. They have a conscript army, and a relatively large mobilization force. But the ability to leverage technology to bring air, sea and ground into a more effective force is crucial for their approach.”

Strategic Adaptations and the Importance of Partnerships: We discuss the need for strategic adaptations to address the evolving security environment. This includes:

• Rebalancing U.S. military presence: Shifting focus from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s growing influence.
• Strengthening alliances and partnerships: Working with regional allies and partners to address shared security challenges.
• Developing new operational concepts and capabilities: Adapting to the RMA and investing in new technologies.

“How can the US Army strengthen Japan-South Korean military ties notwithstanding popular animosities between the two nations?”

“The allies in the region cannot counter China by themselves, and are looking to the United States to play a key role in this effort.”

Important Facts and Insights:

• China’s Nuclear Force Modernization: China is rapidly modernizing its nuclear forces, expanding its arsenal of ICBMs and developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles. This development raises concerns about strategic stability in the region and the potential for nuclear proliferation.
• Russia’s Military Modernization and Assertiveness: Russia is investing heavily in modernizing its military, particularly its nuclear forces and conventional capabilities. This is coupled with a more assertive foreign policy, as evidenced by its actions in Ukraine and the Arctic.
• The Importance of the Arctic: The Arctic is becoming increasingly important strategically due to its vast natural resources and the opening of new shipping routes. Russia is actively asserting its presence and claims in the region, posing challenges to other Arctic nations.
• The Need for Strategic Adaptation: The U.S. and its allies need to adapt their strategies and capabilities to address the challenges posed by the evolving global security environment. This includes investing in new technologies, strengthening alliances, and developing innovative operational concepts.

Conclusion:

The book paints a complex picture of the global security environment in the 21st century. The decline of U.S. hegemony, the rise of multipolarity, and the proliferation of security threats necessitate strategic adaptation and a renewed focus on international cooperation. Understanding the evolving dynamics of power and the impact of technological advancements is crucial for navigating the challenges and opportunities of this new era.

In effect, the book deals with two key questions: What are the key global security trends shaping the 21st century? And how did the Obama Administration foreign and defense policy approach interact with these key trends?

Published July 23, 2023.