Poland's Changing Migration Policy: Genuine Shift or Populist Play?

The Polish government has announced its first migration strategy and proposed a law allowing the temporary suspension of asylum rights.

However, this move is just a populist attempt to calm the growing public concern over mass migration.

In late 2024, when the new Polish government unveiled the migration strategy, it also promised legislative changes, including amendments to the Foreigners Act. Under the proposal, if someone crosses the Polish border illegally, orchestrated by the Belarusian regime, the Polish Border Guard would not be obligated to accept their asylum application.

In mid-December, the government adopted a draft law introducing the possibility of temporarily restricting the right to apply for asylum. Prime Minister Donald Tusk commented that “the right to seek asylum is currently being exploited at the Belarusian border by enemies of the Polish state.”

Work is also underway on measures to revoke refugee status for foreigners who pose a threat to national security or have been convicted of particularly serious crimes. The draft also includes a legal definition of “instrumentalization.” This reflects the assertion that illegal migrants attempting to cross Poland’s border with Belarus – at the same time the external border of the European Union – are part of Russia’s and Belarus’s hybrid warfare strategy.

The Kremlin has reportedly established smuggling routes in the Middle East and Africa, using international criminal groups to bring migrants into Russia, from where they are directed toward Poland’s borders. In other words, Poland is facing artificially created migration pressure orchestrated by neighboring third-party states.

In order to mitigate this threat, Poland has been strengthening its physical border barrier with Belarus. A 5.5-meter-high fence, stretching 187 kilometers, is already in place. By April 2025, Poland plans to launch an electronic barrier along the Bug River, which is already operational along other sections of the border.

In 2024, the Polish portal “InfoSecurity24” reported: “As noted in July 2023 by the ‘Balkan Investigative Reporting Network,’ the revenue generated from bringing migrants into Europe via Russia and Belarus amounted to up to $10,000 per person at that time. The cost of crossing the barrier at the Polish-Belarusian border averaged $3,500. For routes along the river, the price rose to as much as $5,000, while drivers transporting illegal migrants to Germany were paid $600–$700 per person.”

The government also adopted a migration strategy for 2025-2030. This strategy prioritizes national security and aims to ensure migration processes are “carefully regulated and remain under control in terms of purpose, scale, and the migrants’ countries of origin.”

Plans include, in collaboration with FRONTEX, creating a program for the voluntary and forced return of migrants whose presence in Poland is deemed “unjustified or undesirable.” Those granted one of the forms of domestic or international protection will be required to participate in comprehensive integration programs designed to incorporate them into Polish society.

It is important to note that the proposed policy only outlines the possibility of a temporary suspension of asylum applications. Under the government’s plan, the Prime Minister would be authorized to designate specific border areas where, for 60 days, applications for international protection cannot be submitted.

This period could be extended by an additional 60 days with parliamentary approval. However, for these legislative changes to take effect, they must first pass through Parliament. There is also uncertainty about whether the proposed regulations could be challenged in court and ultimately annulled.

The proposal also has a significant weakness: it exempts members of “vulnerable groups” (pregnant women, unaccompanied minors, and individuals requiring special care) from the suspension. In practice, this could lead to critical loopholes, as has been observed in Western Europe, where adults successfully pose as minors.

Moreover, in Western Europe, minors often present a particular threat to public security as they are frequently aggressive offenders whom local laws are unable to penalize effectively due to their age.

Another critical issue lies in the fact that, despite the ongoing tensions at the Polish-Belarusian border over the past several years, no legal amendments have been introduced to provide better protection for Polish soldiers and border guards serving there. Polish law currently lacks provisions allowing the use of direct coercive measures against aggressive migrants.

The only opposition to the government’s proposal has come from the left (part of the ruling coalition) and extremist NGOs, both of which – like leftist parties in Parliament – enjoy very limited public support.

Interestingly, Poland’s plans have not faced criticism from Western European states, including Germany, which, just a few years ago, were highly critical of Warsaw’s actions. It is no secret that nearly all illegal migrants attempting to breach the Polish border are headed for Germany.

Recently, Germany has been sending such illegal migrants – usually undocumented – back to Poland, often without coordinating with Polish authorities. This covert practice has outraged Polish public opinion.

There are voices suggesting that the proposed legal changes are merely the result of a populist game played by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who, just last year when he was the opposition leader, criticized the previous government for its fight against illegal migration. The opposition opposed the construction of a physical barrier (which, now in power, the government is expanding).

For example, Tusk – seen by the Polish right as a faithful ally of Berlin in Warsaw – referred to the fence construction as an “emotional spectacle” (in 2021), while calling illegal migrants “poor people seeking their place on Earth.” However, when Tusk regained power at the end of 2024, his party immediately changed its rhetoric.

This raises justified doubts about his true intentions. Skepticism also stems from the fact that the current government has adopted a plan to establish 49 integration centers for foreigners (CIC) in Poland.

This initiative is co-financed by the EU’s FAMI (Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund). The proposal has caused outrage because the government documents state that the target group should be “third-country nationals, regardless of their legal status in Poland.”

As reported by Polish daily “Interia,” “Documents published by the Ministry of Interior and Administration clearly indicate that the Foreigners’ Integration Centers will assist migrants who have entered Poland illegally.” They quote the Ministry’s official plan: “Regardless of residence status and knowledge of the Polish language, a person reporting as a victim of violence, forced labor, human trafficking, or other crimes should be able to report it at the CIC. Protection of life and health is prioritized over all other CIC operations.”

In other words, the announcements about the possible suspension of asylum rights are likely just a populist game by Tusk, aimed at gaining favor with the concerned Polish public.

Meanwhile, in reality, under his government, Poland is preparing to accept illegal migrants from Western Europe – as part of the forced solidarity of the EU Migration Pact, which Poland has agreed to.