Russian Geopolitical Challenges: Azerbaijan’s Hardline Turn Against Russia

The trajectory of Azerbaijan-Russia relations fundamentally shifted on December 25, 2024, when Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed in Kazakhstan after being hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile system. The Embraer 190, carrying 67 passengers and crew from Baku to Grozny, was struck while approaching its destination during Ukrainian drone attacks on the Chechen capital. The incident killed 38 people and wounded 29, but it was Russia’s response or, more acuratelly, the lack thereof truly changed the dynamic between the two nations.

President Ilham Aliyev’s reaction was swift and uncompromising. “We can clearly say today that the plane was shot down by Russia. This is a fact,” he declared in a televised interview, accusing Moscow not only of the downing but of attempting to cover up the cause.

Aliyev made three specific demands: Russia must apologize, admit guilt, and pay compensation to Azerbaijan and the victims’ families. While Putin eventually apologized for the “tragic incident,” he stopped short of acknowledging responsibility—a response that Azerbaijan found wholly insufficient.

The airplane crash, however, was merely the catalyst for a broader geopolitical shift that had been building as Russia became increasingly preoccupied with its war in Ukraine.

What followed was an unprecedented deterioration in relations between two countries that had maintained pragmatic cooperation for over three decades.

The months following the airplane crash witnessed a series of escalating incidents that demonstrated Azerbaijan’s newfound willingness to challenge Russian dominance.

In May 2025, Aliyev pointedly skipped Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow, an event that traditionally sees leaders of former Soviet republics paying homage to Russian power. The same month, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha visited Baku, signaling closer ties between Azerbaijan and Ukraine.

The crisis reached a new nadir in June 2025 when Russian police conducted violent raids in Yekaterinburg against ethnic Azerbaijanis during a decades-old murder investigation. The operation resulted in the deaths of two brothers, Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, with autopsies revealing they had been beaten to death in custody.

Azerbaijan’s response was swift and unprecedented: it raided the Baku office of Russian state media outlet Sputnik, arrested Russian nationals including IT specialists who appeared in court with visible signs of beatings, and launched a criminal investigation into what it termed the “torture and murder with extreme cruelty” of Azerbaijani citizens.

These developments as symptomatic of a broader erosion of Russian influence in its traditional sphere of influence.

Carnegie analyst Tatiana Stanovaya argues that “the conflict with Azerbaijan has sharply aggravated the matter of Russia’s loss of influence in the post-Soviet space,” describing it as “a direct consequence of the war with Ukraine, which of course will have serious long-term consequences, obviously not in Russia’s favor.”

The situation represents what a potential turning point in the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan equation are distancing themselves from Moscow.

This shift is particularly significant given that Russia had traditionally used the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as a tool to maintain influence over both nations.

Azerbaijan’s boldness in challenging Russia stems partly from its strengthened position following its decisive victory over Armenia in 2023, when it recaptured the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Russia preoccupied with Ukraine failed to intervene to protect its traditional Armenian ally, demonstrating Moscow’s reduced capacity to shape regional outcomes.

Turkey’s role has been pivotal in Azerbaijan’s strategic calculations. The country has “drifted closer to Turkey, a key backer that supplied advanced military hardware, including the drones that were crucial in its success” against Armenia. This partnership provides Azerbaijan with an alternative security guarantee and access to NATO-standard military technology, reducing its dependence on Russian equipment and protection.

The geopolitical implications extend beyond bilateral relations. Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could integrate the region into the “middle corridor” for trade and energy, connecting China and Central Asia with Europe while bypassing Russia. Azerbaijan is investing heavily in this Trans-Caspian International Transport Route as an alternative to Russian corridors, potentially undermining one of Moscow’s key tools of regional influence.

The relationship reached a new level of antagonism when Azerbaijan began providing demining equipment to Ukraine. In what both governments characterized as humanitarian assistance, Azerbaijan sent the domestically produced Vozrohdeni-P demining machine to help clear mines in liberated areas of the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.

Russia’s reaction was swift and disproportionate.

Russian state-linked media outlets began comparing Azerbaijan to Ukraine, calling both “artificial constructs” born out of the Soviet collapse, narratives that “openly dismiss Azerbaijan’s historical legitimacy and echo the same ideological framing used in justification for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”

Moscow’s response included ideological attacks on Azerbaijani statehood, with Russian discourse now treating Azerbaijan as it does other “disloyal” former Soviet republics. Kremlin-linked analysts resurrected debates around ethnic minorities in Azerbaijan, particularly the Lezgins, “as part of a growing information campaign aimed at questioning the internal cohesion of the Azerbaijani state and stoking domestic tensions.”

Perhaps most ominously, Russia has been “quietly reinforcing its military presence near the border” with Azerbaijan, with reports of “the army moving troops toward the border in preparation for a possible two-front war in the Caucasus.”

This military posturing represents a significant escalation from previous diplomatic disagreements.

Despite the escalating rhetoric and incidents, both sides remain aware of important constraints.

Russia, overwhelmed by its war in Ukraine, remains preoccupied with other issues entirely and hopes that tensions are temporary. Economic interdependence also provides a moderating factor: Russia remains Azerbaijan’s main market for agricultural exports and serves as a crucial transport corridor to Iran and other Middle Eastern partners.

Azerbaijan’s approach appears carefully calibrated to avoid complete rupture while establishing new terms for the relationship. Relations have not been cut off entirely for agreements continue to be implemented, ambassadors remain in place, and no new trading restrictions have been put in place. This suggests both sides retain room for de-escalation if needed.

The Azerbaijan crisis reflects broader trends undermining Russian influence across the former Soviet space.

Armenia, traditionally Moscow’s closest ally in the South Caucasus, has similarly distanced itself from Russia following the Nagorno-Karabakh defeat and is now pursuing closer ties with the EU and NATO. Georgia continues its Western orientation despite Russian pressure, while even traditionally loyal states like Kazakhstan have shown increased independence in their foreign policy choices.

Nonetheless, the trend is clear and the spin off from the Ukraine morass on Russia’s geopolitical position is significant, with the Caucuses added to a growing list.

Russia is becoming seen less and less as a force to be reckoned with, and it will be far more difficult for the Kremlin to restore its reputation in the region.

The speed of this decline has been remarkable. What was once considered unthinkable defiance of Moscow has become increasingly common as regional states recognize Russia’s reduced capacity to enforce its will.

The conflict also demonstrates how Russia’s focus on Ukraine has created opportunities for regional actors to reshape longstanding relationships.

Azerbaijan’s ability to challenge Russia while maintaining essential economic ties suggests a new model for post-Soviet states seeking greater independence without complete rupture with Moscow.

The regional balance of power is fundamentally shifting, with “Azerbaijan stand[ing] squarely at the centre of that transformation.”

Whether this leads to a more pluralistic South Caucasus with multiple centers of influence or triggers more aggressive Russian attempts to reassert control remains to be seen.

What is clear is that the December 2024 airplane downing marked more than a tragic accident. It catalyzed a fundamental realignment in one of Russia’s most strategically important regions.

As Moscow struggles with its Ukrainian quagmire, former allies like Azerbaijan are increasingly willing to chart independent courses, potentially reshaping the post-Soviet order in ways that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.

The featured image was created by an AI program.