Chinese Assistance in Pakistan’s Missile Technology: Repercussion in Indo Pacific Region

Pakistan’s missile arsenal comprises short range and medium range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads. These missiles form components of Pakistan’s ‘full-spectrum deterrence.’

Pakistan considers its tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) crucial for its deterrence and at the same time, views it as a war-fighting weapon to negate India’s conventional superiority.

However, Pakistan’s ballistic missile program is a concern owing to the strategic instability in Southern Asia as well as its repercussions in the Middle East. In 2024, the United States has unilaterally imposed sanctions on a Pakistani company and some Chinese companies on the grounds of supplying technology and equipment that could be used for the development of ballistic missiles. This step was taken as a measure to prevent proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities.

Despite these proliferation resistance efforts, Pakistan has continued its missile development program with credible technological advancements to complement its ‘full spectrum deterrence.’

Pakistan is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and has often justified its cooperation with China and North Korea on the grounds that missile capabilities acquired through cooperation did not fall under MTCR guidelines..

Missile Capabilities

Pakistan’s rocket technology development program commenced in the 1960s and the Space Sciences Research Wing of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission was set up and Pakistan was able to receive U.S. rocket technology know-how through its scientists visiting the United States for such training. However, Pakistan sought assistance from China and North Korea also to further its missile development program.

Both China and North Korea played a significant role in Pakistan’s Hatf-1 and Hatf-2 missile development program. The Hatf-3 or Ghaznavi missile is a variant of Chinese DF-11 missile. The missile has undergone both day and night testing, ensuring operational readiness by revalidating technological parameters.

But all these Hatf series are below the range of MTCR guidelines. Technological advancements on Hatf series leading to warhead miniaturisation have led to the development of a missile capability, Hatf-9 that can deliver tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs).

Chinese enterprises have played a significant role in the development of Pakistan’s Shaheen-1 missile. Such contributions not only strengthen Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence against India in South Asia, but for China, it provides another nuclear weapons power in the region against India for India to deal with.

In 2021, Pakistan also tested the Guided Multi Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), Fatah-1 with a range of 140kms. The longer range Fatah-2 can hit targets at 400kms range and are fitted with cutting edge avionics, a sophisticated navigation system and a unique flight trajectory and can engage targets with high precision. The Fatah system can be mounted upon Chinese eight wheel drive chassis vehicles.

Pakistan’s Shaheen missiles range from short range category to longer range ones that can reach targets up to Israel and are an ideal weapon system to strengthen its ‘full spectrum deterrence’ in a manner that is not strategically destabilizing.

Shaheen category ballistic missiles are a deterrent against India’s Agni category nuclear deterrence capability. These missiles also are a result of Chinese assistance. Though unconfirmed, it is believed that the Shaheen-2 is derived from the Chinese M-18 missile.

The Shaheen-1 was believed to have been derived from Chinese M-11 missiles. Pakistan is also reported to have developed the Ababeel missile which can carry multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). The Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry is accused of working with Pakistan to procure equipment for testing rocket motors for the Shaheen-3 and Ababeel systems.

In fact, this Chinese company was one of the companies along with Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Company, Universal Enterprise, and Xi’an Longde Technology Development Company, and the Pakistan-based Innovative Equipment that were sanctioned by the United States in 2024.

China also assisted Pakistan in the development of delivery platforms for nuclear capable cruise missile such as the Ra’ad air launched cruise missile (ALCM). The JF-17 aircraft in Pakistan’s military arsenal has been jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. According to some experts, “Pakistan facilitated China’s missile program through the transfer of unexploded Tomahawk missiles that landed in Afghanistan; reverse engineering helped China create its air-launched KD-20 cruise missile and the ground-launched DH-10 cruise missile. China then used this technology to help Pakistan develop its Babur missiles.”

Repercussions in Indo Pacific region

Pakistan’s missile capabilities leave India with no choice but to strengthen its own deterrence in the Southern Asian region through the development and induction of credible missile capabilities that are conventional and nuclear capable.

These developments also affect the security structure in the Indo Pacific region. India’s long range strike capabilities make China wary of India’s deterrence posture and capabilities, and result in strengthening its own deterrence in the Indo Pacific region.

Both India’s land-based and sea-based nuclear deterrence– that include offensive missiles and also air and missile defence capabilities — affect China’s security thresholds in the Indo-Pacific region. The Indian Navy, in 2024, has tested 3500kms range submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) as deterrence against China in the Indo Pacific region.

India is also strengthening its deterrent capabilities of states in the region that are wary of Chinese assertive posture. India’s BrahMos diplomacy in the South East Asian region has become successful hard power diplomatic means to counter Chinese assertiveness.

The Philippines has already struck deal with India to purchase the missile system, while Vietnam and Indonesia in the South East Asian region are also considering the option. Thailand has also showed interest to buy the BrahMos missile in order to protect the Gulf of Thailand. All these policy oriented actions are a result of India’s policy change in the region from ‘Look East’ policy to ‘Act East’ policy.

Moreover, India’s efforts to develop into blue water capability to counter China in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) only strengthened owing to China’s sharing of technological know-how with Pakistan. Though there is little interest on India’s side to become a major player in the Pacific region, considering the relevance of Indian Ocean in Indo Pacific strategy, India considers its partnership with the United States, Japan, France and Australia in the region crucial.

Though India’s deterrent capability build up vis-à-vis Pakistan does not directly have repercussion on Indo-Pacific, India’s growing cordial relations with the West in the region like France, has enabled New Delhi to acquire new capabilities as deterrence against China.

This has resulted in reverse ‘security dilemma’ in Pakistan, resulting in Pakistan aspiring to acquire new deterrent capabilities to deter India. The apprehension in Pakistan regarding its own conventional capability vis-à-vis India has not only resulted in the development of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) but also indulge in proxy wars against India.

In fact, the proxy wars against India proves tactically beneficial for China by pushing the India into sub-conventional conflict that does involve the diversion of resources into these conflicts.

Conclusion

Despite unilateral sanctions, Pakistan has been receiving assistance from Chinese enterprises for missile technology development. This has resulted in Pakistan possessing advanced missile systems that are survivable and hence, credible. This includes both ballistic and cruise missiles launched from myriad platforms providing greater flexibility in deterrence.

These are generating repercussions for India which are resulting in policy changes in India’s regional outlook and its arms export policies in the region.

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