What Future for the EU in the Post-Ukraine International Order?

The Westphalian model, on which international relations have been based for centuries, is showing signs of obsolescence, while technology and globalisation are redefining the very concept of power.

Faced with the risk of irrelevance and the possibility of establishing itself as a global player, the EU has three options.

Here are the options, according to the analysis of General Pasquale Preziosa, professor of Geopolitics and Geostrategy.

The European Union finds itself today at a decisive crossroads in its history, forced to question its role in the new international order that is emerging.

The war in Ukraine, the worsening of global tensions and the new American administration under Trump’s leadership require a deep reflection on what the future global geopolitical order will be and, consequently, the place that Europe will be able (and will have to) occupy.

The world is entering a new era, not only digital, but also geopolitical and technological, in which true power will no longer be measured only by military or economic force, but by the ability to adapt to a constantly changing landscape.

According to Lucas Kello, the true revolutionary potential of technology lies not so much in the invention itself as in its social and political effects. It is precisely on these effects that the EU will have to focus its attention, in order not to become an irrelevant player in an increasingly fragmented and multipolar system.

The system of international relations as we know it today has its roots in the Treaty of Westphalia of 1648. This agreement defined the outline of the current world order, based on the centrality of nation states as sovereign and autonomous units. This model, known as the Westphalian Order, has dominated for centuries, based on three cardinal principles: First, the organisational principle of the system. The nation-states remain the main geopolitical players, each with absolute sovereignty within its own borders. Alongside them, other subjects emerge such as citizens, active participants in political life, and, in some cases, a hegemonic power capable of dictating the implicit rules of the system. Second, the structure of the system. Relations between states are governed by a balance of power aimed at guaranteeing international survival and stability. Nations cooperate to limit open conflicts and preserve the existing order. Finally, procedures and institutions. Interaction between states is mediated by shared norms and international institutions, such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, which aim to settle disputes and keep the peace.

However, with the acceleration of global processes, the Westphalian Model is showing signs of obsolescence. Transnational corporations, global digital networks and non-governmental organisations are assuming an increasingly important role, threatening the primacy of nation-states. The future of the European Union will depend on its ability to respond effectively to the systemic changes taking place.

Three scenarios appear possible today.

The first is adaptation without transformation.

In this scenario, the EU would retain its current structure, with member states continuing to play the leading role. However, the relationships between these states and their role within the international order would be severely disrupted. The pressure to increase defence spending, as requested by the Trump 2 administration, would push European countries to strengthen their military capabilities, without, however, modifying the existing institutional structures. Global economic competition, driven by the rise of China and new emerging powers, could alter the balance of power between European states, creating internal tensions. In this context, the EU would remain a secondary player, unable to assert true strategic autonomy.

The second, a systemic revision of its organisation.

This would involve a profound transformation of the procedures and methods of interaction between member states, without, however, modifying the basic structure of the EU. The creation of a common European defence would become a priority objective, reducing dependence on NATO and the United States. The European institutions would acquire greater decision-making powers, with a strengthening of the role of the European Parliament and a loosening of Franco-German dominance. Internal economic and trade rules would be redefined to ensure greater cohesion among member states. In this scenario, the European Union could finally establish itself as an autonomous geopolitical actor, capable of influencing global dynamics with a unified voice.

The last, a radical transformation of the international system.

This represents a real systemic revolution. The EU would be transformed into a federation of states with a sovereign central government. Member states would cede part of their sovereignty to a federal entity with exclusive competence in foreign policy, defence and security. European institutions would assume direct control of economic and fiscal policies, putting an end to inequalities between member states. The Union would become a true global player capable of competing with other major powers such as the United States, China and Russia. This change would mean the definitive end of the Westphalian Model and the emergence of a new geopolitical paradigm, in which Europe would assume a central role in defining the rules of the international system.

The current situation is putting pressure on the EU with its Franco-German traction, opening up space for rethinking the internal balance of the EU and with repercussions on the outcome of the transformation process and on the future relationship of the EU with the major global players.

The war in Ukraine, the new Trump 2 presidency and the emergence of new regional powers are accelerating the decline of the Westphalian Conventional Model. However, it is not yet clear whether this model will be completely superseded or whether it will adapt to survive in a different form. Some scholars believe that the transformations taking place concern exclusively the international order and the dynamics between states; others, instead, maintain that a more profound transformation of the global social order is taking place, driven by technological innovation, globalisation and the rise of new forms of non-state power.

The European Union faces a crucial choice: either to remain anchored in the past, risking becoming irrelevant in the global geopolitical scenario, or to adapt to a new multipolar order, reforming its institutions and transforming itself into an autonomous actor capable of exerting real influence at a global level.

If the EU manages to adopt a more pragmatic vision, focussing on common interests, it could emerge as one of the main poles of the new global order, guaranteeing stability, prosperity and security for its citizens and becoming a guide for future generations in a constantly changing world.

This was published in Italian on 24 February 2025 by Formiche.

Lieutenant General (Retired) Pasquale Preziosa is a retired Italian Air Force officer, who served as Chief of the Italian Air Force.

From August 2003 to September 2006 he served as the Defense Attaché at the Embassy of Italy, Washington, D.C., and Chief of the Cabinet of the Minister of Defence from December 2011 to February 2013. He was appointed Chief of the Air Force in 2013.

Since retirement, he has remained extensively engaged in European defense issues and is a regular contributor to the Italian press, radio and television on defense and foreign policy issues.

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