This podcast discusses our report which analyzes the Philippines’ “porcupine defense strategy,” emphasizing its reliance on maritime autonomous systems (MAS) and distributed lethality to deter aggression in the South China Sea.

It highlights the Taiwan-Philippines-Japan strategic triangle and the critical importance of the First Island Chain and Luzon Strait for regional security and global trade.

The report details how U.S.-Philippines military cooperation, including fast boat bases and the deployment of unmanned surface vessels (USVs), is transforming naval operations through a “kill web” paradigm and mesh fleet concept.

Ultimately, the strategy aims to make the Philippines a formidable barrier by distributing defensive assets and leveraging technology, offering a blueprint for smaller nations facing similar geopolitical challenges.

Maritime autonomous systems (MAS) play a pivotal role in transforming naval warfare and enhancing deterrence by shifting away from traditional, capital ship-centric operations towards distributed, networked approaches. This fundamental reimagining of naval strategy allows for greater resilience, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness in contested environments.

The podcast was generated by NotebookLM and contains one error for correction. Chris Morton is the Global Industry Director for Aerospace and Defense at IFS.

The report can be obtained here

Ernst Pijning’s “Controlling Contraband” fundamentally redefines the understanding of “illegal trade” in 18th-century Rio de Janeiro, arguing that it was not a marginal or purely criminal activity, but rather an integral and often condoned part of the colonial economy and society.

The book posits that the distinction between “condoned” and “proscribed” illegal trade was fluid, dependent on factors like social status, political utility, and the interests of various administrative bodies.

This flexibility, rather than being a sign of weakness, was a strategic tool used by the Portuguese crown and local authorities to maintain control, generate revenue, and navigate complex international relations.

This isn’t your typical dry academic treatment of trade policy.

Pijning has uncovered a world where corruption wasn’t a bug in the system — it was a feature.

Drawing from court records, government documents, and contemporary literature, he reveals how contraband became the lifeblood of colonial Brazil, tolerated and even encouraged when it served the right interests.

What makes this book essential reading: The Portuguese Empire’s official trade monopolies were largely fiction. Pijning demonstrates how colonial officials systematically looked the other way— or actively participated — when contraband served their economic and political needs. This wasn’t chaos; it was calculated pragmatism that kept the colonial economy afloat.

The book tackles three explosive questions:

• How did illegal trade actually build 18th-century Brazilian society?
• What was Portugal’s real strategy for “controlling” contraband (hint: it wasn’t control)?
• Who held the power to decide when laws mattered—and when they didn’t?

Pijning overturns conventional wisdom about Brazil-Portugal relations, revealing a colonial system built on contradiction and compromise. Controlling Contraband shows us that understanding the illegal economy isn’t just about crime—it’s about understanding how power really worked in colonial Brazil.

For anyone fascinated by the gap between official policy and messy reality, this book delivers insights that resonate far beyond the 18th century.

Controlling Contraband: Mentality, Economy, and Society in Eighteenth-Century Rio de Janeiro

This book was written in honor of the late Brendan Sargent, a leading Australian strategist.

The collection contains essays and reflections from various scholars, strategists, and public servants, primarily associated with The Australian National University and Griffith University.  The core idea is that strategy is not merely a pragmatic, rational exercise, but fundamentally a challenge to the imagination or the ability to envision alternative futures, reconcile experience with identity, and transcend conventional thinking

The contributors examine how imagination, often drawing from literature, history, and other disciplines, is crucial for understanding complex global challenges, fostering innovative policy development, and navigating Australia’s evolving strategic environment, including its relationships with key international partners and its own historical narratives.

Several sections also address the limitations of conventional approaches and advocate for a more holistic and adaptable mindset in addressing future uncertainties.

This capacity is crucial for nations to navigate complex, rapidly changing environments, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, and that its absence leads to rigid, less effective policies.

“Strategic Imagination: Envisioning Alternative Futures in a Shifting World”
Essays in Honor of Brendan Sargent.

Beyond Cold Logic: How Strategic Imagination Shapes Our World