The F-35 Global Enterprise Deterrent Effect
Despite the F-35 program’s hefty price tag, recent events have shown just how potent the platform is against America’s adversaries.
National and subnational actors have long looked to whether there is a US aircraft carrier in the region as a signal of Western intent or resolve. But that dynamic could be set to change. Given the F-35’s capabilities, as recently proven against Iranian ground defenses, ground-based F-35 fleets hold a similar deterrent status as their carrier-parked counterparts.
With wars raging in the Middle East and Europe, and the potential for great-power conflict this decade in Asia, one of the unmistakable signs of American power and support for allies in those regions has been the aircraft carrier.
According to the latest publicly available data, the United States Navy currently has two amphibious ready groups and an aircraft carrier stationed in the Pacific and other assets throughout the Middle East, the Atlantic, and the West Coast.
Adversaries have long looked to whether there is a US aircraft carrier in the region as a signal of America’s resolve to back up allies with force if necessary.
The aircraft carrier remains a potent signal of American intentions — but it is not the only asset at the United States’ disposal to project hard power, should it be called on.
Recent events in the Middle East demonstrate that the F-35s deployed abroad are arguably just as, if not more important, than the capital ships on which they deploy.
And given the F-35’s capabilities, the aircraft’s presence alone should be interpreted as a signal of American fixity of purpose on par with that of the aircraft carrier.
Proven, Tested Capabilities
From a purely military perspective, Israel’s recent strikes against Iran were an unmitigated success.
Flying a mix of aircraft in three waves against targets in Iran, over 100 Israeli aircraft initially struck high-value air defense targets in Syria and Iraq – including the much-vaunted S-300, a Soviet-designed air defense system.
Two subsequent waves hit military targets and weapon production facilities deep inside Iranian territory, degrading Tehran’s missile production capabilities, particularly of the solid fuel needed for long-range munitions. The strikes leave Iran exposed and highly vulnerable to future strikes by Israel.
Much ink has been spilled on the Israeli operation’s details, particularly the success enjoyed by the F-35. However, one under-appreciated aspect of the operation has been what that Israeli mission’s success means for the American — and allied — F-35 presence worldwide.
Given the F-35’s recent, real-world testing and success against what were considered formidable air defense assets, F-35 groupings stationed at bases worldwide offer policymakers a unique deterrence opportunity in Asia, the Middle East, or Europe.
And, when considering the F-35 fleets of nations allied with the United States, the deterrent effect grows significantly, a factor that alters the calculus of hostile nation’s decision-making.
The China Factor
The Chinese’ steady progress vis-à-vis their anti-ship missile capabilities in recent years should not be taken lightly. And it is precisely this threat that a regional, land-based F-35 strategy would address.
Regional gangsters like Iran and its allies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis pose a significantly smaller threat to the aircraft carrier than the likes of China, which benefits from a much more robust and increasingly more sophisticated anti-ship capability.
That raises the question worth considering: how can the United States, and allies across the globe, best preserve their F-35 fleets? A partial solution may be found in a highly dispersed air-basing strategy on the ground instead of at more densely concentrated formations on aircraft carriers out at sea.
A Numbers Game
How to best preserve America’s naval airpower through a widely dispersed basing strategy or via another solution or mix of solutions is best left to those in the Navy and Pentagon with the requisite experience and expertise to take a clear-eyed view of the situation.
However, what is becoming clear from the planning and policy side of this conversation is that the F-35 stealth platform is a unique, extremely capable asset with a modest but increasingly demonstrable track record against formidable air defense assets.
The world we live in today is increasingly fractured and violent. The potential for global conflagrations to expand and envelop the United States is also rising.
It would behoove the policymakers of the United States to make serious, sustained investments in the F-35 platform, in tandem with partners and allies, to ensure that during a time of national crisis, the F-35 program can lean into the supply chains and manufacturing requirements necessary to keep production rolling rather than to allow lines to become cold.
The F-35 has a significant — and proven — technological edge that vastly outclasses every other fighter today. Let us not hubristically rely on that fact alone but invest in sustainment for a time in which the platform may be called upon to defend the interest of the United States and our allies.
Caleb Larson is a Berlin-based journalist, formerly with Politico. He has spent more than seven months reporting from Ukraine at the front and elsewhere throughout the country.
This article was published by our partner Real Clear Defense on 30 November 2024.