A European Assessment of the Trump Proposed Tariffs and their Trans-Atlantic Impact

Paris – The U.K. was in a delicate balancing act, seeking to build a defense and security pact with the 27-strong European Union, while pursuing bilateral talks for a trade deal with the U.S., said Arancha Gonzalez, dean of Paris School of International Affairs – Sciences Po, a university for international relations.

“The U.K. is in a bind,” Gonzalez told April 16 the Anglo-American Press Association, a press club.

“It is in a bind because in reality even if it left the European Union, its economy gravitates towards the European Union,” she said. “It gravitates towards the continent, and its security and defense gravitates towards the continent.

The U.K.’s gravitational attraction to France and the E.U. could be seen in an April 20 Sunday Times newspaper report London has invited the French president for a state visit in May. Emmanuel Macron would visit the British head of state, King Charles III, months before a planned state visit by President Donald Trump in September.

That invitation for Macron to meet Charles III reflected a perceived need for London to build a bridge to Europe after the U.K.’s Brexit departure. France and Britain were also leading a mission to support Ukraine against Russia, seen as intent on seizing Ukrainian land.

The Trump administration appeared to be losing patience with stalled efforts to agree a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, raising the stakes for building a European military capability led by London and Paris, backed by European allied nations.

A London summit with the E.U. was reported to be planned for May 19, with a defense agreement due to be signed. But there appeared to be a hitch in forging that European pact.

Meanwhile, the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, spoke April 18 to Trump, and discussed trade with the U.S., as well as the conflict in Ukraine, and Iran, Reuters reported. London was seeking a trade deal with Washington, which has imposed a 10 pct tariff on imports of British goods, and 25 pct on aluminium, steel, and cars from the U.K.

“The U.K. left the European Union,” Gonzalez said. “It is now an independent country. It chooses to conduct its business the way it wants to conduct its business.

“Which is why it’s trying to fix its relationship on trade and tariffs with the Trump administration, but it’s also negotiating with the European Union on security and defense to be part of the new European security architecture.”

The U.K. was leading with France on military and financial support for Ukraine, and putting together the “coalition of the willing” of allies in the event of a ceasefire, she said.

London took a “very ideological decision that is coming back to haunt them – about not crafting a security compact between the E.U. and the U.K.,” she said, referring to the latter opting for Brexit in 2016, namely leaving the European Union.

There had been hopes in Europe that London would maintain close ties with the E.U. in defense, research and development, and student mobility, she said, but the U.K. decided to pull out of cooperation as part of Brexit.

That U.K. retreat made “no sense” as the British and E.U. academic, student, and research communities had been “intertwined,” she said. The most interesting issue was security and defense, which the U.K. and the E.U. were now “reorganizing,” she said.

In the meantime, there were issues which had been “left over,” she said, such as fishing quotas for E.U. member states sailing in British waters, which remained to be resolved.

E.U. members France and Denmark have insisted on extending fishing rights in U.K. territorial waters beyond June 2026 when the present agreement expires, as a condition for setting up a European security and defense pact with London, media reports said.

A European defence agreement was considered all the more pressing, with Trump seen as pulling out of Nato, and leaving Europe to its own devices. Russian president Vladimir Putin was seen as hungry for Ukraine, perceived as a way station for later seizing nearby nations in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.

On the U.S. imposition of tariffs, there appeared to be a lack of thought on interdependence, Gonzalez said. The U.S. imports on iPhones and computer tablets made in China generated royalties for Apple, which owned the intellectual property rights, she said. Those tariffs were effectively a tax on Apple.

That interdependence meant tariffs would lead to inflation hitting the U.S. economy, which would hit the bottom 50 pct of the American population, she said.

While Trump made a last minute suspension of planned tariffs on smartphones, tablets, and some electronic devices, the president later said on his social platform there would  be tariffs on semiconductors and the entire electronics supply chain.

For the E.U. the first priority was to maintain “unity at all costs,” she said, with a second priority of responding with “firmness.” This meant staying open to negotiations and being clear what was off limits – such as Greenland.

There was a priority for Europe to act with “responsibility,” not shooting from the hip, she said. The U.S. economy accounted for 13 pct of world imports, with 87 pct remaining for other nations, of which Europe accounted for a large amount.

The German election has shown the importance of Germany’s investment in infrastructure, and defense and security, she said. Germany was the engine of the European economy, and a boost in that nation would be a “big change.”

Asked about the 2008 financial crisis, Gonzalez said there was the then British prime minister, Gordon Brown, who brought together a coalition of the G20 nations, and there was cooperation between the then U.S. and Chinese leaders, Barack Obama and Xi Jinping.

It remained to be seen whether Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi would repeat that cooperative action, she said.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street the Dow Jones 100 share index dropped more than 1,000 points, down more than 3 pct, reflecting investors’ concern over Trump’s renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell.

Gonzalez is a former Spanish foreign minister, and served as chief of staff to the director general of the World Trade Organization, Pascal Lamy. Gonzalez studied law at the universities of Navarra and Madrid, and worked in private practice.

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