Contemporary Global Change Series 5: Australian Defence and Deterrence 2024

We have launched a series which provides the insights of leading strategic thinkers on global change in our time.

The past 15 years have seen dramatic changes which are driving further change in the global system.

The series provides insights with regard to strategic change in the global system over the past 15 years from the standpoint of U.S. Administrations as well as the work of a number of well-known strategic analysts.

We have seen the rise of the multi-polar authoritarian world.

The challenge facing the liberal democracies is fundamental: how to preserve the “rules-based order” in this context and defend Western values.

The fifth book in our series was published in June 2024.

The book is a collection of articles and seminar reports discussing the challenges and opportunities facing Australian defence policy in the 21st century. The author, Robin Laird, examines the strategic landscape, highlighting the rising influence of China and the need for Australia to shift from its traditional role as a follower to a more proactive defender of its own interests.

The book analyzes various aspects of Australian defence, including the role of air power, autonomous systems, and the need for a more resilient and sustainable defence industrial base.

It also emphasizes the importance of multi-domain operations, information warfare, and the integration of Australia’s defence forces with its allies, particularly the United States.

In this book, Dr. Laird provides an update on the ADF or the Australian Defence Force from the perspective of changes introduced in 2023 and embodied in the 2024 Defence Investment Plan. The core of the book is built around the Sir Richard Williams Foundation April 2024 seminar on multi-domain operations in support of an Australian maritime strategy.

Laird is a research fellow with the Sir Richard Williams Foundation and has been writing their bi-annual seminar reports since 2014. And in support of these reports has conducted interviews during his visits since 2014 with the ADF and strategists about the evolution of Australia’s defence and security strategy. As such, these reports provide unique insights into the evolution of Australian defence and security policy.

The book begins with a contribution by John Blackburn and Anne Borzycki who look at the broad impact of Australian politics on the nature of the Australian defence effort and argue for the need for a comprehensive national defence strategy to deal with the new historical era facing Australia and the liberal democracies.

Rather than a world of multi-polarity or great national power competition, a key aspect of the new historical epoch we have entered is multi-polar authoritarianism. Authoritarianism is clearly globally ascendent, but these regimes or groups do not share a common ideology or action program.

Many of these authoritarian states or groups have roots deeply inside Western democracies and through various means operate within Western societies, rather than simply being an external threat. The key challenge facing Australia is whether or not the government and the country shape policies and a strategy to prevail in the new historical epoch.

How does Australia generate a credible deterrent strategy against a power that is their major trading partner?

How does Australia shape a national security and defence strategy which engages the nation and mobilizes its resources?

How does Australia do so while pursuing an energy strategy which simply does not tap the natural resources which Australia possesses in abundance?

How does Australia generate a credible ADF when the government is simply putting off investments in the force that would have to fight tonite?

How credible is the future force?

Do the elements of this force really integrate or are they really new platform stove pipes?
Does Australia have a credible alliance approach?

Is AUKUS really a centerpiece of a military renaissance?

How will Australia stand up to China while largely being a raw materials supplier to the country?

How realistic is the domestic understanding of what the threat from the new authoritarians is domestically? Information war is now a key domestic fact of life, and not simply an away game.

How capable is Australia of building the defence and security infrastructure it needs?

Can Australia defend itself as a sanctuary to the extent necessary to provide a strategic reserve for its Pacific allies in times of crisis?

How will Australia focus primarily on Indo-Pacific challenges and still remain engaged with at least some presence forces for other global regions?

How will Australia defend its maritime interests without shaping a significant merchant maritime capability?

In short, key questions need to be asked and answered and not only by Australia. Each of its democratic partners faces major challenges itself.

Below there is a Deep Dive podcast on the book:

This podcast was generated by Google’s NotebookLM system.