The Way Ahead for European Defence

The increasing difficulties of the United States in confirming its leadership have opened a debate on the foundation of a new international order and the reform of international institutions.

Europe is faced with a crucial choice: continue to trust in American strategic protection, which is increasingly uncertain, or build its own credible and autonomous defense capability.

The post-Cold War era of illusion, when peace and security seemed guaranteed once and for all, is over.

Today, the threats are real, hybrid and pervasive, and blind faith in Washington is no longer enough.

What is at stake is not only military: it is the strategic sovereignty of the continent. Without a European defense, the Union risks irrelevance, becoming hostage to the events and decisions of others.

A “purposeful” European defense based on deterrence, not aggression, is needed.

In the current geopolitical context, a large European army to project power is not necessary. Instead, what is needed is a defense system with clear objectives, aimed at guaranteeing collective security mainly through deterrence to prevent Europe from being threatened. This type of defense does not exclude NATO; on the contrary, it strengthens its coherence through greater European strategic autonomy. It is a strategic insurance policy, particularly useful when the Atlantic Alliance is unable to operate in full synergy with the European Union.

The central point is that the new competition between the great powers – the United States, Russia, China, India – is increasingly played out on the basis of deterrence. The wars of the future will not necessarily be won by force, but by power: the ability to influence, dissuade and guide the choices of others. And in this scenario, Europe risks presenting itself as disarmed – even if only symbolically.

A credible deterrent requires immediate operational capability, a core that has the power to “push the button”. Europe has the French nuclear weapon: the heart of strategic defense can be organized around France with the involvement of countries that are already key decision makers, Germany in particular, on the basis of Structured Cooperation.

Each state should have a ground force for the defense of its territory, based on the Swiss model. A similar model was also adopted by the USA for two centuries, from the end of the 18th century until the Second World War: a federal army (at the time naval), flanked by ground forces organized by the individual “member states”. Today in Europe this solution would allow an agreement between federal political forces, the defensive core of the Air Force and atomic deterrence, and confederal political forces, the national ground forces.

Throughout its history, Europe has grown according to the logic of Jean Monnet: an evolutionary synthesis between federal and confederal solutions, capable of strengthening European power while respecting national powers. Once this fundamental choice has been made, other choices are possible, specific and with flexible participation of the Member States according to their capacity.

Europe urgently needs a unified network of radars, satellites, intelligence capabilities, electronics, early warning and surveillance tools. Space is now an operational domain, as is cyberspace, which has become a daily battlefield between states and non-state actors. A unified European cyber defense posture is as urgent as an armed border line.

Major European projects such as FCAS (Future Combat Air System) and others must overcome bureaucratic sluggishness and become real strategic priorities. Europe needs interoperable resources, built in supranational consortia, that speak the same technological and operational language. Every defense system needs effective political-military command and control. For this reason it is essential to develop a European strategic doctrine – clear, realistic, shared – and to establish a European Defense Command.

But above all, we need a common political direction, able to decide quickly in case of crisis.

A permanent European Security Council, with real powers, is no longer a utopia but a necessity.

Europe must not militarize itself in order to become more offensive. Its strength must be defensive, a guarantee of peace and not an instrument of aggression. A credible deterrent is necessary precisely to avoid having to use it.

Today Europe has everything it needs: economic resources, industrial bases to reorganize with new programs, technological capabilities, regulatory instruments. The last step is missing: the political will to assume the strategic responsibility for its own destiny.

Those who do not decide, will be decided by others.

Pasquale Preziosa is former Chief of Staff of the Air Force and Dario Velo is professor at the University of Pavia.

This article was first published in the Italian Newspaper Formiche on 6 April 2025.

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