Macron, Trump, and Syria: How the Diplomatic Shift Reshapes Erdogan’s Strategic Calculus

In a remarkable diplomatic shift, both France and the United States have taken significant steps toward normalizing relations with Syria’s interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa.

These moves represent a dramatic change in Western policy toward Damascus and carry profound implications for regional power dynamics—particularly for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has positioned himself as a central figure in Syrian affairs.

French President Emmanuel Macron hosted al-Sharaa at the Élysée Palace on May 7, marking the Syrian leader’s first official visit to Europe since taking power following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.

During this high-profile meeting, Macron expressed support for gradually easing sanctions on Syria and urged the European Union not to renew them when they come up for review in June.

“It now remains for Syria to rise to the challenge of the road towards civil peace and harmony,” Macron said during their joint press conference, striking what Euronews described as “a cautious balance between support and firm expectations.”

The French leader’s embrace of al-Sharaa—despite criticism from right-wing parties in France regarding the Syrian leader’s past ties to jihadist groups—signals Europe’s pragmatic approach to post-Assad Syria.

Only days later, during his Middle East tour, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on May 13 that he would lift all American sanctions on Syria. “I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness,” Trump declared at an investment forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. “It’s their time to shine. We’re taking them all off.”

Trump subsequently met with al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia on May 14, where he reportedly encouraged the Syrian leader to normalize relations with Israel by joining the Abraham Accords.

According to a White House readout, Trump also urged al-Sharaa to remove foreign terrorists from Syria and help prevent the resurgence of ISIS.

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, these diplomatic developments represent both validation and opportunity.

Turkey has maintained significant influence in Syria throughout its civil war, supporting various opposition groups and controlling territory along its border.

The fall of Assad’s regime in December 2024 and the rise of a government with closer ties to Ankara has already boosted Turkey’s regional standing.

“This is Erdogan’s big comeback on the world stage,” Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, told The Washington Post. “A few months ago, Turkey was being labeled the ultimate example of electoral autocracy, heading into dictatorship. Fast forward into mid-May and what you have is Erdogan—out in the cold for four years [under the previous administration of President Joe Biden]—coming back both as a winner in Syria and a big player in the Ukraine-Russia space.”

Reuters reports that Erdogan has “probably never held more global sway,” as he prepares to host the first direct Russia-Ukraine peace talks in three years on May 16—another diplomatic coup that enhances his international standing. According to the same report, Erdogan lobbied Trump for weeks to lift sanctions on Syria’s new government, demonstrating his influential role in shaping U.S. policy in the region.

These developments create significant implications for Turkey’s relations with Europe. Erdogan has recently positioned Turkey as essential to European security, particularly as the U.S. under Trump appears to be recalibrating its commitments to Europe.

At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in April, Erdogan emphasized that “European security is unthinkable without Turkey,” highlighting the country’s NATO membership and its second-largest military within the alliance.⁶ According to Foreign Policy, Turkey has been “quietly becoming more aware of itself as a key stakeholder in European security,” seeing opportunities to leverage its strategic position and military capabilities as Europe seeks alternatives to American security guarantees.⁷

There are signs that Turkey is using the current geopolitical environment to reset ties with Europe. Foreign Policy notes “early signs of a deepening security conversation between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s team and its European counterparts,” with Turkey hoping that security cooperation could improve the overall EU-Turkey relationship.

With increased leverage, Turkey may push harder on long-standing issues like visa liberalization for Turkish citizens traveling to EU countries, which was promised as part of the 2016 refugee deal but has seen little progress.

This aspect of EU-Turkey relations has remained a sore spot, with Turkish officials noting that all other EU candidate countries enjoy visa-free travel privileges that Turkey lacks.

Reshaping Middle Eastern Power Dynamics

In the Middle East, the diplomatic initiatives by France and the United States create new dynamics that Erdogan appears well-positioned to exploit.

The peaceful settlement with Kurdish forces—the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) recently announced it would disarm and disband—and warming relations with Syrian Kurds have enabled a political agreement between Kurdish groups and al-Sharaa’s Turkish-backed government. The Washington Post notes that this thaw “likely enabled a recent political agreement between Syrian Kurds—who are closely linked to the PKK—and Sharaa’s Turkish-backed fledgling government,” representing a major diplomatic achievement for Erdogan.

According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Turkey’s influence on Syria gives it many cards to play in international diplomacy. Turkish and Turkish-backed forces have played a significant role in the Syrian conflict and will likely continue to do so now.”

This influence extends beyond Syria, projecting into the broader Middle East.

The potential inclusion of Syria in the Abraham Accords could help reduce Iranian influence in the country, which would align with Turkey’s regional objectives.

The Times of Israel reports that “Washington and Gulf countries are seeking to pull Syria away from Iranian influence,” which could further strengthen Turkey’s position relative to its regional rival Iran.

However, this development also presents complications for Turkey-Israel relations.

Euronews reports that “the fall of Assad has aggravated already tense relations between Turkey and Israel, with their conflicting interests pushing the relationship toward a possible collision course.”

If Syria normalizes relations with Israel while Turkey maintains its more confrontational stance, it could create complex diplomatic challenges for Ankara.

The lifting of sanctions on Syria opens significant economic opportunities for Turkey as a neighboring country with established trade routes and business connections.

Syria’s reconstruction needs will be substantial, and Turkish companies are well-positioned to play a leading role.

Al Jazeera reports that removing sanctions “takes away a key obstacle in [Syria’s] ability to establish some kind of economic development,” and quotes Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, noting that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have been pushing for this outcome.

Turkey, with its geographic proximity and economic ties, stands to benefit substantially.

A Strategic Win for Erdogan?

The recent diplomatic initiatives by France and the United States toward Syria’s new government represent a significant strategic victory for Erdogan.

They validate Turkey’s approach to Syria, enhance its regional influence, and provide Erdogan with increased leverage in dealings with both Europe and other Middle Eastern powers.

Despite domestic challenges—including protests against the imprisonment of his main political rival, Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—Erdogan’s international stature has grown considerably.

His ability to influence events in Syria, host Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and maintain close personal relationships with leaders like Trump has strengthened Turkey’s position as a crucial power broker.

As Western sanctions on Syria are lifted and diplomatic engagement increases,

Turkey stands at the center of the geopolitical reconfiguration. Erdogan’s strategy of positioning Turkey as both a European security partner and a Middle Eastern power appears to be bearing fruit, though challenges remain—particularly in managing relations with Israel and balancing competing regional interests.

What seems clear is that the French and American diplomatic outreach to Syria’s new leadership has inadvertently enhanced Turkey’s strategic position, giving Erdogan additional leverage in his ongoing efforts to position Turkey as an indispensable regional power.

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