South Korea’s Defense Export Boom: From Middle Power to Global Pivotal State

South Korea’s remarkable transformation from a war-torn nation dependent on foreign military aid to one of the world’s top defense exporters represents more than just economic success — it signals a fundamental shift in how the country views its role on the global stage.

The dramatic growth in defense exports since 2021 has not only bolstered South Korea’s economy but has also provided new tools for diplomacy and international influence, enabling its evolution from a traditional middle power to what President Yoon Suk-yeol envisions as a “Global Pivotal State.”

The scale of South Korea’s defense export growth is staggering. From modest annual exports of $2-3 billion until 2020, the industry exploded to $7.3 billion in 2021, peaked at $17.3 billion in 2022, and maintained $14 billion in 2023. This trajectory has propelled South Korea to become the world’s 10th largest arms exporter, capturing a 2% share of the global arms market—a 12% increase over the past decade.

The ambitions are equally impressive. The Yoon administration has set a target of $20 billion in defense exports and aims to make South Korea the world’s fourth-largest defense exporter by 2027. These aren’t merely economic goals; they represent a strategic vision for South Korea’s enhanced role in international affairs.

Historically, South Korea operated as a classic middle power—a country with “the capacity and desire to shape outcomes in niche areas of global governance” in concert with other like-minded states. Under the Moon Jae-in administration, this approach prioritized North Korean issues and maintained accommodating attitudes toward China to sustain inter-Korean dialogue momentum.

President Yoon’s administration has fundamentally reoriented this approach. Rather than the previous administration’s “strategic ambiguity,” Yoon has embraced “strategic clarity” that seeks security through a stronger U.S. alliance and enhanced cooperation with like-minded democracies. Central to this vision is the concept of a “Global Pivotal State Contributing to Freedom, Peace, and Prosperity”—a role that defense exports help make tangible.

Defense exports have dramatically expanded South Korea’s diplomatic engagement across multiple dimensions. The geographic reach alone tells a compelling story: South Korea expanded its defense customer base from 4 countries in 2022 to 12 countries in 2023, with clients spanning from Australia to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

More significantly, South Korea has become the second-largest defense provider for six countries among the world’s 40 largest importers between 2019-2023: Indonesia, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. It serves as the top supplier to the Philippines. These relationships extend far beyond simple commercial transactions, creating new avenues for diplomatic engagement and strategic partnerships.

The $22 billion framework agreement with Poland in 2022, signed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, exemplifies how defense exports have become instruments of geopolitical alignment. Similarly, recent deals include a $3.2 billion surface-to-air missile system with Saudi Arabia and a $920 million fighter aircraft contract with Malaysia.

South Korea’s success in the global arms market stems from a distinctive value proposition that analysts describe as “cheaper, better, faster.” Korean defense products cost significantly less than top-tier alternatives while offering faster production timelines and maintaining quality that is “almost as good” as premium competitors.

This advantage is particularly pronounced when compared to U.S. weapons systems. While American military hardware is renowned for top-tier performance, the high costs make such systems unaffordable for most countries, creating an attractive market niche for Korean alternatives.

Beyond cost considerations, South Korea offers crucial interoperability advantages. Due to South Korea’s regular joint military exercises with the United States, Korean weapon platforms maintain high compatibility with US and NATO systems, allowing countries to simplify logistics when acquiring Korean weapons. This compatibility has proven especially valuable for NATO countries seeking to rapidly modernize their forces in response to the Ukraine conflict.

South Korean defense companies have also pioneered comprehensive partnership models that extend beyond simple arms sales. These include technology transfers, overseas production arrangements, and “all-in-one” package deals that bundle non-military products alongside defense contracts.For instance, Hyundai Rotem’s deal with Poland included not only K9 tanks but also trams for civilian infrastructure development.

The defense export boom has enabled South Korea to transcend traditional middle power constraints and pursue more ambitious international objectives. Defense exports serve as tangible demonstrations of South Korea’s commitment to liberal democratic values while providing economic leverage and enhanced diplomatic relationships.

This transformation aligns with broader changes in South Korea’s foreign policy approach. The Yoon administration has actively participated in various multilateral and minilateral cooperation initiatives, including trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan; the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework; and Partners in the Blue Pacific. Defense exports provide both the economic foundation and diplomatic tools to sustain such enhanced international engagement.

Despite remarkable success, South Korea faces significant challenges in fully realizing its global pivotal state ambitions. The most pressing involves managing relationships with China. As South Korea strengthens ties with Washington and Tokyo, its relationship with Beijing has been overshadowed, creating potential economic and security vulnerabilities.

The structural constraints of major power competition also limit South Korea’s maneuverability. With both the United States and China holding UN Security Council veto power while maintaining starkly different views on key international issues, South Korea faces challenges in advancing its interests through multilateral institutions.

Domestically, South Korea’s polarized political landscape poses risks to policy continuity. The country has historically lacked a coherent grand strategy, leading to foreign policy discontinuities across leadership transitions due to contrasting views among political camps on relationships with China, Japan, and North Korea.

As South Korea continues to secure major defense contracts and expand its global footprint, the defense industry’s role in the country’s international positioning will likely grow. The government has committed to investing 3 trillion won ($2.1 billion) to boost defense exports, recognizing both the economic opportunities and strategic imperatives involved.

The success of South Korea’s transformation from middle power to global pivotal state will ultimately depend on its ability to navigate great power competition while maintaining the domestic consensus necessary for sustained international engagement. Defense exports provide important tools for this endeavor, but they are means rather than ends in South Korea’s broader quest for enhanced international influence and security.

South Korea’s defense export boom represents more than industrial success — it exemplifies how middle powers can leverage economic capabilities to enhance their strategic autonomy and international influence.

As global security challenges multiply and traditional power structures evolve, South Korea’s experience offers valuable insights into how countries can transcend conventional limitations and pursue more ambitious roles on the world stage.