The Space Race: The European Union’s Role

At the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia conducted military and cyber-attacks to eradicate Ukrainian communication channels. Enter: Starlink. Elon Musk’s satellite internet constellation saved Ukraine in the early days of the war and has crystallized the importance of space capabilities on the modern battlefield.

But space has become crowded with actors, making it increasingly difficult to manage. With an increasing number of public and private actors across nationalities, a multifaceted “space race” is taking place. Millions of pieces of debris are floating in our low-earth orbit, with potential disaster waiting to happen and no effective “space law” existing to regulate such a future.

The EU has leaned into its regulatory reputation and has put proposals for such a law on the table. As a union, it is a relatively new member of the space conversation, but the war in Ukraine propelled its space momentum forward. The EU claimed space as a strategic domain requiring protection only in 2022. The first EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence was published in March of 2023, and a year later, there were high expectations for a first draft of an EU Space Law to be released, but it has never materialized. The draft is kept tightly under wraps and is expected sometime this summer.

As other international space actors, such as Russia, China, and the United States, have increased their regulatory measures, the EU must ensure it can steer the policy conversation on space in its favor. The proposed law is rumored to center around three pillars: managing space traffic, protecting Europe from cyber-attacks, and building the European space sector. To be effective, the law must tap into the EU’s most powerful asset: its single market. The European market is the most integrated global economy, with more than 450 million consumers to tap into. With the space economy expected to reach $772 billion by 2027, this is an area where Europe must lead.  According to the Council of the EU, an EU Space Law “would enable the creation of an EU Single Market for space activities.”

Who’s Who in EU Space?

Before the EU can effectively impact the global space market, it must overcome difficult internal deliberations. The underlying question that the EU must first address is who controls European space regulation.

Europe’s space policies are divided between Paris and Brussels. Established in 1975, the European Space Agency (ESA), based in Paris, is not an official European institution but a conglomerate of states acting as a space agency for certain countries of Europe. In Brussels, the EU Commission is leading programs such as the EU’s Earth Observation program Copernicus, the EU’s Global Satellite Navigation System Galileo, and the EU’s communication satellite system Iris 2.

The two agencies currently partner on several initiatives. Still, strategic cultures between them must be resolved to build a streamlined space policy as the EU expands on competencies around space. The ESA has long led Europe’s approach (albeit between European states at the national competency level), and the Commission will have to make the transfer, or partnering, of competencies seamless to avoid a European space ‘turf war.’

It’s All About the Timing

The EU’s window of opportunity for space regulation is ripe because of political will and strategic interest. A strong push for a defense commissioner in the next EU Agenda demonstrates a clear appetite to work on space. The anticipation of Ursula Von der Leyen, current Commission president, to be re-appointed for another term, sets the stage for prioritizing EU Space Law. Von der Leyen’s political party’s 2024 manifesto addressed space as an important element for Europe to “defend itself” and Von der Leyen prioritized space in her current EU? mandate. While space would most likely fall under the future defense commissioner’s portfolio, to be most effective, it will have to approach the issue vis-à-vis the single market, a natural fit for the EU.

Slap A Label on It

The EU Space Label would identify companies that respect the EU regulations on sustainability and security in space and use the economic power of the world’s most integrated single market to entice companies to abide by the regulations.

The EU has shown that it can lead when leveraging its market. For example, the Digital Services Act (DSA) is a groundbreaking law that holds 40+ media giants (think Facebook, Snapchat, Google, and TikTok) legally accountable for everything from spreading fake news to protecting  children online. The DSA has had global repercussions and has aided in changing policy discussions around platform accountability.

The Future of the EU New Space

If the EU can overcome its internal divisions, harness the power of the single market, and leverage its strengths in space, European competency in this sector will flourish.

The EU has signaled a clear intention for increased investment, and this drive to re-industrialize the EU as a whole will significantly impact the future of European New Space. The European Investment Bank (EIB) recently approved updates to the definition of dual-use goods and infrastructure to accelerate the deployment of funds towards security and defense capabilities. The EIB is the actor that invests and lends the financial capabilities to fund EU policy objectives. With space being a primary dual-use sector, this investment decision will open up myriad growth opportunities.

The EU is searching for its role in the space race. As it invests more in these capabilities and creates a more substantial space market in Europe, it will increasingly be able to assert itself internationally. However, it must do more before it attempts to be the defining regulatory actor.  While it is clear that regulation is necessary, the EU will once more have to strike a balance between driving the regulatory agenda and potentially kicking itself out of a critical market. A market that drives everything from tracking your Uber Eats order via GPS to ensuring your country’s security.

Chloe Ladd is YPFP’s 2024 Rising Expert on Europe. She is currently the Manager of Transatlantic Relations at the Bertelsmann Foundation. She holds a Master’s Degree from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

This article was originally published by Charged Affairs on August 8, 2024.

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