Reality Check: Russian Intentions in Europe

The Trump administration’s decision to initiate peace negotiations with Russia ended exactly as anticipated in Central and Eastern Europe: in complete failure.

The Kremlin is not interested in peace as it seeks to prolong the war and maintain pressure on the West.

A stark illustration of Russia’s intentions, far from peaceful, is the ongoing offensive south of Kostyantynivka across a broad front (Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine).

At the same time, Russian forces are attempting to expand their control over border regions in the Sumy Oblast (northeastern Ukraine).

Russia has also intensified its aerial attacks across the entirety of Ukraine. Between May 24 and 26, it is estimated that over 1,000 drones and missiles were launched. Strategic sites such as industrial centers and airports were targeted, but once again, civilians bore the brunt of the assault. Cities like Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Ternopil, and the capital, Kyiv, were all hit. Although many missiles and drones were intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses, the attacks resulted in 12 civilian deaths and over 60 injuries.

Simultaneously, reports from France’s Le Monde suggest that Ukraine has exhausted its stockpile of SAMP/T and Crotale air defense missiles.

Russia’s unwillingness to pursue peace is evident not only in its aggressive escalation against Ukraine but also in at least two additional factors.

• First is the Kremlin’s refusal to engage constructively in negotiations or show any willingness to compromise.
• Second is the systematic militarization of Russian society and economy, alongside an extensive expansion of its armed forces.

These are deep, structural changes that are not made with short-term peace in mind.

In mid-May, direct talks between Ukraine and Russia took place in Istanbul. Despite earlier assurances from President Trump that his phone call with Putin was “highly productive,” the Turkish meeting yielded no tangible results. Russia remained firm on its maximalist demands, which would effectively mean Ukraine’s capitulation.

The Kremlin even rejected a preliminary Ukrainian condition – mutual ceasefire – dealing a blow to U.S. credibility, as this condition was originally proposed by the White House.

This sequence of events underscores a sobering reality: the United States currently wields little influence over the peace process.

That is a worrying signal for an administration seeking to maintain America’s image as a global power capable of resolving international crises. Putin’s refusal to attend the Istanbul meeting, despite President Zelensky’s readiness for direct dialogue, further highlights Moscow’s dismissive attitude.

As noted by the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), “Russian representatives will seek to prolong the talks, which, amidst ongoing military operations, will gradually weaken Ukraine and allow Russia to occupy more territory. The Kremlin, expecting Ukraine to eventually withdraw from the negotiations, is also trying to exploit Trump’s eagerness for a quick peace deal, regardless of Ukrainian interests. This was evident in the phone conversation with Putin: although it produced no concrete results, the U.S. President promised that if the war ends, Russia could resume trade with the United States.”

If Russia were serious about ending its aggression, it would not continue the nationwide militarization of its society and economy. As The Wall Street Journal reports, Russia is building new military bases and preparing to deploy additional forces to regions far from Ukraine’s immediate borders. The Kremlin is expanding recruitment, boosting arms production, and upgrading railway infrastructure.

In September 2024, Putin signed a decree raising the strength of Russia’s armed forces to 2.4 million personnel. This is more than double the 1.1 million in mid-2022. New military districts have been established for Moscow and St. Petersburg.

This expansion is not just a propaganda gesture.

Training and maintaining such a large force require significant resources. It is illogical to assume that these soldiers will be demobilized and returned to civilian life, where they would face unemployment or meager wages.

In other words, the Kremlin is not training soldiers it does not intend to use.

Deploying these troops makes strategic sense, particularly given the low social cost of their potential losses. Russia’s military disproportionately recruits from ethnic and religious minorities, not from the major cities. These minorities, not the urban elite, are the ones paying the human cost of war. Their loss may even be perceived by the Kremlin as beneficial, reducing the threat of separatist movements that could destabilize Russia from within.

The Russians continue the infamous tradition of Stalin, who once reportedly said, “Death solves all problems — no man, no problem.”

Russian provocations are also increasing in the Baltic Sea.

The so-called “shadow fleet” – a group of aging, uninsured vessels sailing under various flags – is being used to transport Russian oil while evading Western sanctions.

As Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen noted, “Russia has always maintained a strong military presence. What’s new is that Russian armed forces are now escorting tankers from their shadow fleet through narrow passages in the Gulf of Finland. That is unprecedented.”

Finland has become the most vocal country warning of the rising Russian threat. Helsinki has reported Russian aircraft activity over the Gulf of Finland and multiple airspace violations.

Finland also notes that Russia is expanding and modernizing military bases near its borders, as well as constructing new rail lines close to both Finnish and Norwegian territory.

As Häkkänen stated, “There is no doubt that Russia is an aggressive and dangerous neighbor for all of Europe.”

In summary, most analysts in Central and Eastern Europe agree on a bleak assessment not just for their region, but for the entire transatlantic community, including the United States, which, despite the Trump administration’s choices, still holds and will continue to hold strategic interests in Europe.

First and foremost, there is a growing belief that this war is not truly about Ukraine.

Rather, it is a means to reassert Russian imperialism and achieve long-term Kremlin objectives: dismantling European unity and, above all, destroying the transatlantic alliance.

The ultimate goal, shared with China, is to weaken the United States as much as possible.

The twilight of American global dominance has become increasingly visible in recent years.

While Russia’s military lags behind NATO’s in terms of technology (with some exceptions, such as advances in electronic warfare since 2022) its sheer manpower poses a serious threat to NATO member states.

These countries have smaller armed forces, and their societies, as consistently shown by public opinion surveys, are reluctant to fight for their homelands. Russia, by contrast, has a far greater capacity and determination to wage a prolonged war of attrition.

That is a deeply troubling forecast for the future.

Featured image was generated by an AI program.