The China Issue in the 2025 Australian Federal Election

The 2025 Australian federal election took place against a backdrop of gradually improving Australia-China relations.

The previous years had seen a significant thaw in relations that began under the Albanese Labor government after their 2022 election win.

By the end of 2024, China had lifted all of its trade restrictions on Australia, including punitive measures on exports that had cost Australian businesses approximately $20 billion annually.

Labor’s Approach

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government, which ultimately won re-election on May 3, 2025, adopted what observers characterized as a “steadying approach” to China. Labor pursued a policy aimed at stabilizing relations with Beijing while simultaneously reaffirming Australia’s security commitments through frameworks like AUKUS (the security pact linking Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States).

During the campaign, Albanese highlighted that his government had successfully improved relations with China, which had removed a series of trade barriers that had cost Australian exporters billions annually since Labor came to power in 2022. This economic normalization became a key selling point for Labor’s foreign policy credentials.

Under Albanese, Australia had been credited with improving relations with China, leading to the lifting of tariffs imposed during his predecessor’s term. His government also repaired relations with Pacific island nations, partly to prevent Beijing from filling a leadership vacuum in the region.

The Coalition’s Stance

The opposition Liberal-National Coalition, led by Peter Dutton, took a more complex position on China during the campaign:

In recent months before the election, the Coalition had revived more combative rhetoric, accusing the Labor government of inaction and complacency in the face of growing strategic threats. While avoiding the incendiary rhetoric of its 2022 campaign, the Coalition returned to familiar critiques, portraying Albanese and Labor as “weak” on national security.

However, Dutton’s messaging on China showed evolution from his earlier hardline positions:

When asked during the campaign whether a Coalition government would continue to foster trade relations with China, Dutton declared unequivocally that “the relationship with China will be much stronger than it is under the Albanese government.”  This represented a significant softening from his previous rhetoric.

Mid-2024, Dutton had said: “I’m pro-China and the relationship that we have with them. I want that trading relationship to increase… We need to make sure we strengthen the trading relationship because there are many businesses here who rely on it.”

The Coalition adopted what analysts described as a “tripartite messaging strategy” on China:

Dutton projected strength on national security while engaging constructively on trade and diaspora issues; the shadow foreign and trade ministers adopted a pragmatic, moderate approach; and shadow defense and home affairs ministers took a firm ideological line on threats posed by Beijing.

Key Points of Contention

Trade Policy On trade, both Labor and the Coalition supported expanding economic ties with China. Trade Minister Don Farrell expressed confidence in the relationship’s future, suggesting two-way trade could grow from $300 billion to $400 billion annually. Dutton went further, stating he would “love to see the trading relationship increase two-fold.” However, the difference lay in framing. Labor continued to advocate risk-managed commercial engagement grounded in economic pragmatism, while the Coalition cast trade in more overtly strategic terms, warning of overdependence and economic vulnerability.

Critical Minerals and Technology Critical minerals were positioned as central to trade diplomacy for both parties. On connected technologies such as electric vehicles, Labor leaned toward consumer access and affordability, while the Coalition raised alarms about data and cybersecurity risks, signaling a more restrictive stance.

Security and Strategic Assessment While both parties supported the AUKUS security partnership, they differed in tone regarding the threat assessment of China: Dutton described Albanese’s reaction to three Chinese warships virtually circumnavigating Australia in February 2025 as the “weakest, most limp-wristed response you could see from a leader.” When Australia complained about insufficient notice of Chinese live-fire exercises off the Australian coast, Beijing responded that Australia had made “unreasonable accusations.”

Approach to the Chinese-Australian Community The election saw both parties actively engaging with Chinese-Australian voters, a marked shift from previous campaigns: The brazen courting of Chinese Australians—both Albanese and Dutton were filmed enjoying Chinese meals on the campaign trail—was a welcome departure from Australia’s 2022 federal election, when anti-Chinese sentiment had reached an unfortunate peak amid a severe chill in Sino-Australian relations as well as COVID-related racism. Both parties were increasingly attentive to Australia’s Chinese communities, not only for their electoral significance but as a vital dimension of domestic cohesion, prompting sustained efforts at engagement and messaging sensitivity.

Alleged Foreign Interference The specter of Chinese interference remained present during the campaign: The Australian Secret Intelligence Organisation and the Australian Electoral Commission cooperated to guard against China’s alleged attempts to shape foreign elections. For Australian voters, especially those consuming media in languages other than English, the information environment was crowded and contested.  Researchers identified concerns about misleading information disseminated through Chinese-language social media platforms like WeChat and Red during the election. The transnational, multilingual nature of such social media services exposed gaps in Australian electoral regulations, which primarily focused on English-language communications.

The Trump Factor and Global Context

The election was heavily influenced by the broader geopolitical environment, particularly the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump:

After the election, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that the Labor government would prioritize dealing with the “dark shadow” of the U.S.-China trade war, after a campaign that highlighted concerns over U.S. trade policy and the global economy.

Michael Fullilove of the Lowy Institute noted that “the biggest challenge for the next government is to manage the strategic triangle between Washington, Beijing and Canberra. The U.S. is our great security ally and China is our most important economic partner — and they are currently at loggerheads.”

While Trump’s policies were not popular in Australia, Lowy Institute polling showed 80% of Australians regarded the U.S. alliance as important for security.

Shaping a Wau Ahead

Analysts expect Australia to continue facing challenges in balancing its relationships with the US. and China. Australia’s strategy of simultaneously trading with China while maintaining strategic boundaries had proven achievable, but Trump’s high-tariff trade policy was sending shockwaves across the global economy, creating potential pressure points.

Industry experts noted that Australia’s success will depend on its capacity to chart a measured course between “Washington’s forceful volatility and Beijing’s defensive confidence” in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

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